Quarterly Update: Retail Market

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Retail sales in Metro Houston topped $32.6 billion in Q3/21, according to data released today by the Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts. That represents a 25.2 percent nominal jump and an inflation-adjusted 18.8 percent bump from the $26.0 billion consumers spent in Q3/20. 
Several factors drove the surge. Consumers continued to spend stimulus checks they received earlier in the year. Inflation began to kick, driving overall prices up 5.7 percent in the 12 months ending Q3/21. More Houstonians were commuting to work in Q3/21 than Q3/20, driving up the demand for gasoline. And with more vehicles being on the road, gasoline prices rose. From Q3/20 to Q3/21, the price of regular gasoline rose by $0.99 per gallon. The surge in sales at gasoline stations accounted for nearly half (42.9 percent) of the increase in retail sales.

Retail sales data provided by the Comptroller of Public Accounts typically lags by three or more quarters. The most recent data available, highlighted above, substantiates the robust recovery underway in Houston in the second half of ’22. Economists won’t know if the Federal Reserve’s recently interest rate hikes are affecting Houston retail sales until Q2/23.

Prepared by Greater Houston Partnership Research

Patrick Jankowski, CERP
Senior Vice President, Research

713-844-3616
pjankowski@houston.org