UC Berkeley Research Presents a Machine Learning System that Can Forecast at Near Human Levels

In the evolving landscape of predictive analytics, the art and science of forecasting stand as pivotal tools for decision-making across various sectors, from government policy to corporate strategy. Forecasting has relied heavily on statistical methods, thriving on abundant data and minimal shifts in underlying patterns. However, judgmental forecasting has introduced a nuanced approach, leveraging human intuition, domain knowledge, and diverse information sources to predict future events under data scarcity and uncertainty.

The challenge in predictive forecasting lies in its inherent complexity and the limitations of existing methodologies. Statistical models, while powerful, often need to catch up in scenarios marked by data scarcity or significant changes in data distribution. Judgmental forecasting, however, introduces the human element, with all its insights and biases, into the equation. This method relies on forecasters’ ability to synthesize information from varied sources, including historical data and current events, to make informed predictions about future outcomes.

A research team from UC Berkeley has developed a novel LM pipeline, a retrieval-augmented language model system specifically designed for forecasting. This system automates critical components of the forecasting process, including the retrieval of relevant information from news sources, the reasoning based on the data gathered, and the aggregation of individual forecasts into a comprehensive prediction. The core of this innovation lies in its ability to harness web-scale data and the rapid parsing capabilities of LMs, offering a scalable and efficient alternative to traditional forecasting methods.

The system combines different approaches to achieve comprehensive coverage in forecasting by decomposing questions into sub-questions and using search queries. Articles are retrieved from news APIs and filtered based on relevance scores provided by GPT-3.5-Turbo. The articles are then summarized to fit within the context window of the language model. Reasoning is an important aspect of accurate forecasting, and the system uses scratchpad prompts to guide the model’s reasoning process. It ensembles predictions from different models to improve accuracy, and the retrieval and reasoning system is optimized through a hyperparameter sweep, including optimizing prompts, article summaries, and ensembling methods. This intricate process allows for a more informed and nuanced approach to prediction, leveraging language models’ vast knowledge and rapid processing capabilities.

The researchers are very positive with the results obtained from the study. On a comprehensive test set, the system achieved an average Brier score of .179, closely approaching the human aggregate score of .149, indicating that the language model-based forecasting system closely approximates, and in some instances surpasses, the accuracy of human forecasters aggregated from competitive platforms. This finding suggests a significant potential for language models to contribute to predictive forecasting, offering accurate predictions at scale and facilitating more informed decision-making processes.

In conclusion, the study presents a compelling case for integrating language models in the forecasting domain and highlights the potential for these tools to enhance predictive accuracy and efficiency. While the journey from research to real-world application involves numerous challenges and considerations, the foundational work laid by the UC Berkeley team marks a significant step forward in the ongoing efforts for more reliable and accessible forecasting methods. The implications of this research extend beyond academic interest, promising to influence decision-making processes in government, business, and beyond as we navigate future uncertainties.

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